In the first two parts of this series, we explored the importance of separating decision quality from outcome quality and the pitfalls of resulting. Now, it’s time to look forward and build a robust process that will help you make better decisions moving forward. While reflecting on past decisions is crucial, the real power lies in applying those lessons to the future. This six-step process will sharpen your decision-making skills and give you a clearer view of what lies ahead.

The Challenge of Seeing the Future Clearly

The biggest hurdle in decision-making is navigating the inherent uncertainty of the future. When you’re faced with a new decision, it’s like looking through a foggy window. The future is unclear, and the outcomes are uncertain. But by following a structured decision-making process, you can significantly improve your ability to anticipate how different choices might unfold.

This six-step guide is designed to help you see through that fog and make decisions with more confidence. And as you apply this process to new decisions, you’ll also find it easier to assess past decisions without the bias that comes from knowing the outcomes.

The Six Steps to Better Decision-Making

Step 1: Identify the Reasonable Set of Possible Outcomes

The first step in making a better decision is to map out the range of possible outcomes. What could realistically happen if you choose one option over another? It’s essential to think broadly here — consider all the different ways things could play out, both positive and negative.

For example, if you’re thinking about taking a new job, the possible outcomes could include everything from thriving in your new role and getting a promotion to struggling with the company culture and eventually leaving the job. The goal here is to lay out a spectrum of possibilities so you’re not blindsided by unexpected developments.

Step 2: Identify Your Preference for Each Outcome

Next, consider how you feel about each of these outcomes. Which ones do you prefer? Which ones would you rather avoid? This step is about understanding your values and how they influence your decisions.

Each outcome will have a payoff — a gain or a loss in something you value. For some decisions, these payoffs might be monetary, like the potential to earn or lose money on an investment. But payoffs can also include factors like happiness, time, social connections, self-esteem, and more. By identifying your preferences, you’re essentially weighing the pros and cons of each possible outcome based on what matters most to you.

Step 3: Estimate the Likelihood of Each Outcome Unfolding

Now that you’ve identified the possible outcomes and your preferences, it’s time to estimate the likelihood of each outcome occurring. How likely is it that each scenario will play out?

This step introduces probabilistic thinking into your decision-making process. You don’t need to be a mathematician to do this — start by using common language to express probabilities. Terms like “likely,” “unlikely,” “frequently,” and “rarely” are good starting points. Over time, as you become more comfortable with this step, you can refine your estimates to be more precise.

Step 4: Assess the Relative Likelihood of Outcomes You Like and Dislike

Once you’ve estimated the likelihood of each outcome, assess how the options stack up against each other. Which outcomes are most likely, and how do they align with your preferences? Are the scenarios you prefer more likely to occur, or are you facing a higher probability of outcomes you’d rather avoid?

This step helps you balance risk and reward. It’s not just about knowing what could happen, but understanding the odds of each scenario and how they align with your goals. For example, if you’re considering an investment, you’ll weigh the likelihood of gaining money against the risk of losing it, factoring in how much you’re willing to risk for a potential gain.

Step 5: Repeat Steps 1–4 for Other Options Under Consideration

The decision-making process doesn’t stop with evaluating a single option. To make the best possible choice, you need to repeat the first four steps for all the options you’re considering. This could mean evaluating different job offers, investment opportunities, or any other set of choices you’re weighing.

By applying the same thorough analysis to each option, you ensure that your final decision is based on a comprehensive understanding of all your choices.

Step 6: Compare the Options to One Another

Finally, it’s time to compare the options. With all the information in front of you — the possible outcomes, your preferences, the likelihood of each scenario, and how the options stack up — you can make an informed decision.

This comparison isn’t just about picking the option with the most pros and the fewest cons. It’s about understanding which option offers the best balance of risk and reward, given your values and goals. By the end of this process, you should have a clear idea of which option is most likely to lead to a favorable outcome, even if the future remains uncertain.

Why This Process Works

This six-step process isn’t just about making better decisions in the moment — it’s about building a repeatable framework that you can apply to any decision, big or small. By focusing on possible outcomes, preferences, probabilities, and comparisons, you create a structured approach that cuts through the fog of uncertainty.

One of the biggest advantages of this process is that it forces you to think critically about your choices, rather than relying on gut instinct or superficial analysis. It helps you avoid common pitfalls like resulting, where you judge the quality of a decision solely by its outcome. Instead, you’ll have a clear record of your decision-making process, which you can revisit and learn from, regardless of how things turn out.

Bringing It All Together

The journey to mastering decision-making isn’t about achieving perfection — it’s about continuous improvement. By following this six-step process, you’ll not only make better decisions but also become more aware of how your choices shape your life. You’ll develop a deeper understanding of your values, a sharper ability to anticipate future outcomes, and a greater sense of confidence in your decision-making abilities.

As you continue to apply these steps, remember that decision-making is an ongoing process. Each decision you make is an opportunity to learn and grow, refining your approach and becoming a more effective decision-maker over time.

Stay tuned for more insights and tools in the next part of this series, where we’ll explore advanced techniques to further enhance your decision-making skills.